Climate change and conflicts in the Sahel – politics versus science. A predominant narrative in international politics has it that there is a close link between climate change and conflicts in the Sahel. This article is a critical assessment of this claim based on results from international research, available climate data, and two case studies carried out in Mali.
The narrative is attractive to politicians and bureaucrats, in particular, and is championed by influential scholars with no empirical experience from the Sahel. The available rainfall data do not provide evidence of a drying of the Sahel. International research also demonstrates that the Sahel has become greener during the past 20 years. The drought of the 1980s contributed, together with other factors, to increased conflicts, but the main cause of both the conflicts in Mali was political and historical and not climatic.
In addition, it is impossible to link resource scarcity in the Sahel in the 1980s to global climate change. The main cause of the two conflicts can be found in state policies leading to marginalisation of pastoralists. This is one of several examples from «environment and development» where empirical research challenges dominating narratives without having any influence on policies.
The narratives are attractive to some influential actors and therefore have a momentum of their own leading to their expansion independently and contrary to the research.
